| 松墨天牛在山西省的潜在地理分布和扩张风险分析 |
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| 引用本文：范世明,张楠,王淼,刘磊,崔浩,刘燕,崔绍朋,张志伟,高瑞贺.松墨天牛在山西省的潜在地理分布和扩张风险分析.植物保护学报,2024,51(6):1496-1505 |
| DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2024.2024024 |
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| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 范世明 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800 | | | 张楠 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800 | | | 王淼 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800 | | | 刘磊 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800 | | | 崔浩 | 山西省沁水县林业局, 沁水 048200 | | | 刘燕 | 山西省沁水县林业局, 沁水 048200 | | | 崔绍朋 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800
山西省林草危险性有害生物检验鉴定中心, 晋中 030800 | | | 张志伟 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800
山西省林草危险性有害生物检验鉴定中心, 晋中 030800 | | | 高瑞贺 | 山西农业大学林学院, 晋中 030800
山西省林草危险性有害生物检验鉴定中心, 晋中 030800 | gaoruihe1989@163.com |
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| 中文摘要:为探究松墨天牛Monochamus alternatus在山西省的潜在地理分布及扩张风险，利用山西省93个气象站点2002—2022年的有效气温观测数据，采用基于数字高程模型（digital elevationmodel，DEM）的多元线性回归插值法对山西省气温空间分布进行模拟，以最冷月月均温和有效积温为依据确定当前气候下和未来增温气候（增温分别为1.5、2.3、2.8和3.3℃）下松墨天牛在山西省的潜在适生区分布情况和面积；采用多指标综合评判法量化松墨天牛在山西省的地理扩张风险等级。结果表明：山西省年平均温度、最冷月月均温、大于10.6℃有效积温的回归模型的决定系数分别为0.901、0.957和0.877，P值均小于0.001，模型模拟效果较好；当前气候下松墨天牛在山西省的高适生区面积为4.606×104km2，占全省总面积的28.92%，主要分布在山西省南部；未来增温气候下松墨天牛在山西省的高适生区分布持续向北扩展，延伸至山西省中部的大部分区域和忻州市，当增温分别为1.5、2.3、2.8和3.3℃时，高适生区面积分别达到7.199×104、8.530×104、9.389×104和10.179×104 km2；松墨天牛在山西省地理扩张的风险综合评价值为2.10，在山西省具有高地理扩张风险。 |
| 中文关键词:松墨天牛 适生区 风险评价 气温 空间模拟 |
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| Analysis of potential geographical distribution and expansion risk of Japanese pine sawyer beetle Monochamus alternatus in Shanxi Province |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Fan Shiming | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Zhang Nan | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Wang Miao | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Liu Lei | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Cui Hao | Forestry Administration of Qinshui County, Qinshui 048200, Shanxi Province, China | | | Liu Yan | Forestry Administration of Qinshui County, Qinshui 048200, Shanxi Province, China | | | Cui Shaopeng | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China
Shanxi Dangerous Forest and Grass Pest Inspection and Identification Center, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Zhang Zhiwei | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China
Shanxi Dangerous Forest and Grass Pest Inspection and Identification Center, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | | | Gao Ruihe | Forestry College, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China
Shanxi Dangerous Forest and Grass Pest Inspection and Identification Center, Jinzhong 030800, Shanxi Province, China | gaoruihe1989@163.com |
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| Abstract:To investigate the potential geographical distribution and expansion risk of Japanese pine sawyer Monochamus alternatus in Shanxi Province, spatial temperature distribution was simulated using a multiple linear regression interpolation method based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and effective temperature observation data from 93 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province during the period of 2002—2022. Based on the mean temperature of the coldest month and the effective accumulated temperature, the distribution and potential suitable areas were analyzed under current climate conditons and future warming climate scenarios (warming of 1.5, 2.3, 2.8 and 3.3 ℃, respectively). The results show that the regression model coefficients of determination for annual mean temperature, coldest month mean temperature and effective accumulated temperature above 10.6 ℃ were 0.901, 0.957 and 0.877, respectively, with P-values all less than 0.001, indicating the model’s strong simulation performance. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable areas for M. alternatus in Shanxi Province is 4.606×104 km2, accounting for 28.92% of the total area of the province, mainly distributed in the southern part of Shanxi Province. Under future warming climate scenarios, the highly suitable areas are projected to expand northward, extending into central Shanxi Province and Xinzhou City. The areas of highly suitability are expected to increase to 7.199×104, 8.530×104, 9.389×104 and 10.179×104 km2 under warming scenarios of 1.5, 2.3, 2.8, and 3.3 ℃, respectively. The comprehensive risk assessment value for the geographical expansion of M. alternatus in Shanxi Province was calculated as 2.10, classi-fying it as a highly dangerous forest pest. |
| keywords:Monochamus alternatus suitable area risk assessment temperature spatial simulation |
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