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基于MaxEnt模型的柳脊虎天牛及其寄主植物潜在适生区预测

引用本文：张嘉敏,李玉春,王霞,巴依苏拉,鲍婉婷,郝恩华,陆鹏飞,程业森.基于MaxEnt模型的柳脊虎天牛及其寄主植物潜在适生区预测.植物保护学报,2024,51(6):1484-1495

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2024.2023062

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作者	单位	E-mail
张嘉敏	北京林业大学, 林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室, 北京 100083
李玉春	额济纳旗林业和草原局胡杨研究所, 内蒙古额济纳 735400
王霞	阿拉善盟林业和草原有害生物防治检疫站, 内蒙古阿拉善左旗 750300
巴依苏拉	额济纳胡杨林国家级自然保护区管理局, 内蒙古额济纳 735400
鲍婉婷	阿拉善盟林业和草原有害生物防治检疫站, 内蒙古阿拉善左旗 750300
郝恩华	北京林业大学, 林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室, 北京 100083
陆鹏飞	北京林业大学, 林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室, 北京 100083	lpengfei224@126.com
程业森	阿拉善盟林业和草原有害生物防治检疫站, 内蒙古阿拉善左旗 750300	chys7210@163.com

中文摘要:为明确严重为害多种阔叶树的害虫柳脊虎天牛Xylotrechus namanganensis及其寄主植物的潜在适生区，通过MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对柳脊虎天牛及其不同寄主植物在全球的现有分布点、环境变量进行模拟，评估该虫及其寄主植物在全球的适生区及地理区域适生等级，并利用模型预测结果对影响柳脊虎天牛定殖的主要环境因素进行分析。结果显示：柳脊虎天牛在全球的适生区主要分布于亚洲南部、北美洲西部沿海、非洲最北端西部沿海以及欧洲东南沿海，大洋洲和南美洲无适生区分布；其中高度、中度和低度适生区的面积分别占全球除南极洲以外陆地面积的2.27%、3.23%和5.89%，最冷季度平均温度和最热月份最高温度是影响柳脊虎天牛适生区分布最重要的环境变量。该害虫在中国的适生区主要分布于新疆、内蒙古、甘肃和宁夏等省区，与寄主胡杨的适生区高度重合，其中柳脊虎天牛高度、中度和低度适生区的面积分别占全国总适生区面积的11.21%、9.24%和17.34%。表明我国北方各省应加强对柳脊虎天牛的检疫，采取科学高效的监测和防治措施，降低其带来的潜在生态和经济损失。

中文关键词:柳脊虎天牛寄主植物最大熵模型适生区环境因子

Prediction of the potential suitable zone of Namangan longhorn beetle Xylotrechus namanganensis and its host plant based on the MaxEnt model

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhang Jiamin	State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Li Yuchun	Hu Yang Research Institute, Ejina Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ejina 735400, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Wang Xia	Alxa League Station of Forestry and Grassland Pest Control and Quarantine, Alxa Left Banner 750300, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Bayisula	Ejina Hu Yang National Nature Reserve Administration, Ejina 735400, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Bao Wanting	Alxa League Station of Forestry and Grassland Pest Control and Quarantine, Alxa Left Banner 750300, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Hao Enhua	State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Lu Pengfei	State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China	lpengfei224@126.com
Cheng Yesen	Alxa League Station of Forestry and Grassland Pest Control and Quarantine, Alxa Left Banner 750300, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China	chys7210@163.com

Abstract:To clarify the potential suitable habitats for the longhorn beetle Xylotrechus namanganensis, a severe pest of various broad-leaved trees, and its host plants, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the beetle’s current global distribution points, environmental variables, and different host plants ranges. The potential suitable habitats and geographic suitability levels of X. namanganensis were evaluated globally, and the primary environmental factors influencing its colonization were analyzed. The results showed that the global suitable habitats for X. namanganensis are mainly distributed in southern Asia, the western coastal regions of North America, the northernmost western coast of Africa, and the southeastern coastal regions of Europe, with no suitable habitats identified in Oceania and South America. The high, medium, and low suitability zones accounted for 2.27%, 3.23%, and 5.89% of the total suitable area, respectively. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the maxi-mum temperature of the warmest month were the most significant climatic variables affecting the habitat distribution of X. namanganensis. In China, the beetle’s suitable areas are primarily distributed in provinces such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia. These regions overlap significantly with the suitable area of its host plant Populus euphratica. In China, the high, medium, and low suitability zones accounted for 11.21%, 9.24%, and 17.34% of the national total suitable area, respectively. These findings indicate that northern provinces in China should strengthen quarantine measures against X. namanganensis and adopt scientific and effective monitoring and control measures to reduce its potential ecological and economic impacts.

keywords:Xylotrechus namanganensis host plant MaxEnt model suitable habitat environmental factor

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