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基于MaxEnt模型预测油菜茎基溃疡病菌在我国的潜在地理分布

引用本文：顾昕敏,王俊,田艳丽,胡白石.基于MaxEnt模型预测油菜茎基溃疡病菌在我国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,2024,51(6):1383-1392

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2024.2024033

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作者	单位	E-mail
顾昕敏	南京农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 南京 210095
王俊	新疆维吾尔自治区植物保护站, 乌鲁木齐 830001
田艳丽	南京农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 南京 210095 新疆农业科学院植物保护研究所, 新疆农业生物安全重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830091	tianyanli@njau.edu.cn
胡白石	南京农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 南京 210095 新疆农业科学院植物保护研究所, 新疆农业生物安全重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830091

中文摘要:为明确油菜茎基溃疡病菌Leptosphaeria maculans在我国的潜在适生性，基于该病菌的全球分布数据和相关气候数据，使用MaxEnt模型以及ArcGIS软件对当前气候条件下及未来低强迫SSP126和高强迫SSP585情景下病菌在我国的潜在地理分布进行预测。结果显示：影响油菜茎基溃疡病菌在我国潜在分布的主要环境变量包括年平均气温、最干月降水量、等温性和年降水量，贡献率分别为31.1%、29.0%、16.5%和14.7%。当前气候条件下，油菜茎基溃疡病菌在我国的适生区主要分布在华东、华中和西南部分地区，东北、华北、华南和西北零星地区，总适生区面积占我国陆地总面积的14.58%。未来气候低强迫SSP126和高强迫SSP585情景下，油菜茎基溃疡病菌的适生区仍主要分布在华东、华中和西南地区，但面积均呈现缩减趋势，且中、高适生区面积缩减更为明显。为保障我国油菜产业的健康发展，应密切监测气候变化，强化检疫与防控措施，以有效应对油菜茎基溃疡病菌的潜在威胁。

中文关键词:油菜茎基溃疡病菌 MaxEnt模型潜在地理分布气候变化

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of fungal pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans in China based on MaxEnt model

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Gu Xinmin	Key Laboratory of Plant Quarantine Pests Monitoring and Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu Province, China
Wang Jun	Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Province, Urumqi 830001, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China
Tian Yanli	Key Laboratory of Plant Quarantine Pests Monitoring and Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu Province, China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety, Institute of Plant Protection, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China	tianyanli@njau.edu.cn
Hu Baishi	Key Laboratory of Plant Quarantine Pests Monitoring and Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu Province, China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety, Institute of Plant Protection, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Abstract:To clarify the potential suitability of fungal pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans in China, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of L. maculans in China under current climatic conditions and future SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, based on its global distribution and related bioclimatic data. The results revealed that the main environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of L. maculans in China included annual mean temperature, precipitation of driest month, isothermality, and annual precipitation, with contribution rates of 31.1%, 29.0%, 16.5%, and 14.7%, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, suitable areas for L. maculans included parts of eastern China, central China, and southwestern China, with scattered areas in northeastern China, northern China, southern China, and northwestern China, collectively covering 14.58% of China’s total land area. Under future SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, the suitable areas of L. maculans were still mainly in eastern China, central China, and southwestern China, but the area showed a decreasing trend, with moderately and highly suitable areas demonstrating a more pronounced reduction. To ensure the healthy development of China’s rapeseed industry, we should closely monitor climate change and strengthen quarantine and control measures to effectively respond to the potential threat posed by L. maculans.

keywords:Leptosphaeria maculans MaxEnt model potential geographical distribution climate change

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