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基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下飞扬草在中国的潜在地理分布

引用本文：李建宇,赵建伟,于文涛,陈燕婷,史梦竹,阮菲,傅建炜,赵紫华,刘万学.基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下飞扬草在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,2023,50(6):1540-1547

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2023.2023830

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作者	单位	E-mail
李建宇	福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013
赵建伟	福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013
于文涛	福州海关技术中心, 福建省检验检疫技术研究重点实验室, 福州 350001
陈燕婷	福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013
史梦竹	福建省农业科学院农业质量标准与检测技术研究所, 福州 350002
阮菲	福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013
傅建炜	福建省农业科学院农业质量标准与检测技术研究所, 福州 350002
赵紫华	中国农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 北京 100193	zhzhao@cau.edu.cn
刘万学	中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 植物病虫害综合治理全国重点实验室, 北京 100193	liuwanxue@caas.cn

中文摘要:为明确入侵杂草飞扬草Euphorbia hirta Linn.在中国的潜在地理分布，基于MaxEnt模型结合ArcGIS地理信息系统软件，对飞扬草在历史气候及未来气候2个情景下的潜在适生区进行预测，并采用刀切法分析各环境因子对飞扬草适生区的影响。结果显示，在飞扬草潜在地理分布变化过程中，影响最大的环境因子是最湿季度降水量，其次是最暖季度平均温度。历史气候条件下，飞扬草在中国的总适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的32.45%，其中高适生区占13.57%，中适生区占10.06%，低适生区占8.82%。未来气候条件下，预测结果表明2050年飞扬草的潜在适生区将进一步扩张，其中在高强迫SSP585情景下飞扬草的总适生区面积大于低强迫SSP126情景下的总适生区面积，而SSP126情景下的高适生区面积则大于SSP585情景下的高适生区面积。表明飞扬草在中国的潜在适生区分布范围较广，可能在未来进一步扩散至全国，建议相关部门加强监控，防止飞扬草进一步入侵和扩散。

中文关键词:飞扬草最大熵模型潜在地理适生区入侵植物

Potential geographical distribution of asthma plant Euphorbia hirta based on MaxEnt under predicted future climate conditions

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Li Jianyu	Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China
Zhao Jianwei	Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China
Yu Wentao	Fujian Key Laboratory for Technology Research of Inspection and Quarantine, Technology Centre of Fuzhou Customs, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
Chen Yanting	Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China
Shi Mengzhu	Institute of Quality Standards and Testing Technology for Agro-Products, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian Province, China
Ruan Fei	Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China
Fu Jianwei	Institute of Quality Standards and Testing Technology for Agro-Products, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian Province, China
Zhao Zihua	Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, ChinaAgricultural University, Beijing 100193, China	zhzhao@cau.edu.cn
Liu Wanxue	State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China	liuwanxue@caas.cn

Abstract:To predict the potential geographical distribution of an alien invasive weed Euphorbia hirta Linn. in China, the suitable areas under historical and future climate conditions were predicted based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software. The Jackknife method was used to analyze the influence of various environmental factors on the suitable establishment areas for E. hirta. The results showed that in the process of changes in the potential geographical distribution of E. hirta, the environmental factor with the greatest influence was the precipitation of the wettest quarter, followed by the mean temperature of warmest quarter. Under historical climate conditions, the potential geographical distribution areas of E. hirta in China accounts for 32.45% of total land area, of which the highly suitable area accounts for 13.57%, the moderately suitable area accounts for 10.06%, and the slightly suitable area accounts for 8.82%. Based on future climate conditions, prediction results indicated that the suitable areas of E. hirta will further expand in 2050. The total area of potential distribution of E. hirta under SSP585 scenario was higher than that under SSP126 scenario, while the areas of highly suitable area of E. hirta under SSP126 scenario was higher than that under SSP585 scenario. This indicates that the potentially suitable habitat area of E. hirta in China is relatively wide, and it may further spread to the whole country in the future. It is recommended that relevant departments strengthen monitoring to prevent further invasion and spread of E. hirta.

keywords:Euphorbia hirta maximum entropy model potential geographical distribution invasive plant

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