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基于MaxEnt模型预测欧洲榆小蠹的全球潜在地理分布

引用本文：梁特,王清栋,辛本花,吴卓瑾,石娟.基于MaxEnt模型预测欧洲榆小蠹的全球潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,2023,50(6):1499-1507

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2023.2023826

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作者	单位	E-mail
梁特	北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083
王清栋	北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083
辛本花	吉林省林业实验区国有林保护中心, 蛟河 132517
吴卓瑾	北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083
石娟	北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083	BJshijuan@bjfu.edu.cn

中文摘要:为探究欧洲榆小蠹Scolytus multistriatus在全球的潜在地理分布，根据其全球分布数据和筛选出的环境变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测其在当前气候及未来气候条件下的适生区。结果显示，所建MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（area under curve，AUC）大于0.9，表明模型预测结果可靠；利用刀切法对筛选出的环境变量进行分析后发现，12月平均最低温度对欧洲榆小蠹在全球的分布影响最大，同时也提供了最多的特有信息。在当前气候条件下，欧洲榆小蠹在全球的潜在分布范围主要集中在15° N~70° N和20° S~60° S之间，包括北美洲中部及南部、南美洲南部及东南沿海、欧洲、非洲中部、亚洲东部和大洋洲，适生区总面积约4.62×10⁷ km²。欧洲榆小蠹在我国的适生区广泛分布于20余个省（自治区、直辖市），适生区总面积约为3.27×10⁶ km²。在未来气候条件下，欧洲榆小蠹的适生区面积将会扩大，并在SSP585（2081—2100年）情境下达到最大，为5.93×10⁷ km²。鉴于欧洲榆小蠹在我国具有较广的适生区，建议加强对其的检验检疫力度，防止其侵入我国。

中文关键词:欧洲榆小蠹 MaxEnt模型潜在地理分布气候变化环境变量

Prediction of the potential global geographical distribution of smaller European elm bark beetle Scolytus multistriatus by using the MaxEnt model

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Liang Te	Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Wang Qingdong	Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Xin Benhua	State-Owned Forest Protection Center of Forestry Experimental Area of Jilin Province, Jiaohe 132517, Jilin Province, China
Wu Zhuojin	Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Shi Juan	Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China	BJshijuan@bjfu.edu.cn

Abstract:In this study, based on global distribution data of smaller European elm bark beetle Scolytus multistriatus and selected environmental variables, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable areas of S. multistriatus under near-current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic of the MaxEnt model was greater than 0.9, affirming the model’s high reliability. Jackknife analyses of the environmental variables revealed that the average minimum temperature in December was the most influential climatic variable shaping the global distribution of S. multistriatus, providing specific information on the distribution of S. multistriatus. Under current climate conditions, the potential global distribution of S. multistriatus was mainly concentrated between 15° N-70° N and 20° S-60° S, including central and southern North America, southern and southeastern coasts of South America, Europe, central Africa, eastern Asia, and Oceania, resulting in a total suitable area of 4.62×10⁷ km². In China, the suitable areas of S. multistriatus were widely distributed across more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, with a total suitable area of 3.27×10⁶ km². Under future climate conditions, the suitable area for S. multistriatus will expand, reaching a maximum area of 5.93×107 km2 under the SSP585 scenario (2081—2100). Given the wide range of suitable areas in China, it is recommended to strengthen inspection and quarantine measures to prevent the invasion of S. multistriatus in China.

keywords:Scolytus multistriatus MaxEnt model potential geographical distribution climate change environment variable

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