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气候变化条件下木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区预测
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引用本文:陈燕婷,史梦竹,傅建炜,赵紫华,刘万学,李建宇.气候变化条件下木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区预测.植物保护学报,2023,50(6):1491-1498
DOI:10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2023.2023825
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作者单位E-mail
陈燕婷 福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013  
史梦竹 福建省农业科学院农业质量标准与检测技术研究所, 福州 350002  
傅建炜 福建省农业科学院农业质量标准与检测技术研究所, 福州 350002  
赵紫华 中国农业大学植物保护学院, 农业农村部植物检疫性有害生物监测防控重点实验室, 北京 100193  
刘万学 中国农业科学院植物保护研究所, 植物病虫害综合治理全国重点实验室, 北京 100193 liuwanxue@caas.cn 
李建宇 福建省农业科学院植物保护研究所, 福建省作物有害生物监测与治理重点实验室, 福州 350013 roy111999@foxmail.com 
中文摘要:为明确木瓜秀粉蚧Paracoccus marginatus Williams et Granara de Willink 1922在中国的潜在适生区,基于中国820个气象站点的气象数据和未来气候变化数据,结合木瓜秀粉蚧的生物学特性,利用CLIMEX模型对该虫在中国当前气候以及未来气候条件下的潜在适生区进行预测。结果显示,木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区主要在南方,适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的9.07%。高适生区主要包括海南省、广东省南部、广西壮族自治区南部以及福建省和云南省小部分地区。在未来气候条件下,2050年木瓜秀粉蚧的潜在适生区将进一步扩大,适生区面积所占比例将增加至15.46%,且有向北移动的趋势。表明木瓜秀粉蚧对中国南方地区的农业潜在威胁巨大,建议将该虫增补为检疫对象,并加强检疫监管和种群动态监测。
中文关键词:木瓜秀粉蚧  潜在适生区  有害生物风险分析  CLIMEX模型  气候变化  检疫
 
Potential distribution of papaya mealybug Paracoccus marginatus in China under global warming
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Chen Yanting Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China  
Shi Mengzhu Institute of Quality Standards and Testing Technology for Agro-Products, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian Province, China  
Fu Jianwei Institute of Quality Standards and Testing Technology for Agro-Products, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian Province, China  
Zhao Zihua Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China  
Liu Wanxue State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China liuwanxue@caas.cn 
Li Jianyu Fujian Key Laboratory for Monitoring and Integrated Management of Crop Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350013, Fujian Province, China roy111999@foxmail.com 
Abstract:To clarify the potential suitable regions for papaya mealybug Paracoccus marginatus Williams et Granara de Willink 1922 in China, CLIMEX model was used to predict the current and future distribution of P. marginatus considering climate data and the biological properties of the papaya mealybug. The results showed that the potential distribution of P. marginatus in China is predominantly in the southern regions, accounting for 9.07% of the total land area. Highly suitable areas for P. marginatus include Hainan, the south of Guangdong and Guangxi, as well as specific regions in Fujian and Yunnan provinces. Under global warming, it is predicted that by 2050, the suitable areas for this mealybug will increase to 15.46%, expanding northwards. These findings raise concerns about the potential severe impact of this mealybug on agricultural production in southern China. Therefore, it is recommended that P. marginatus be included in the quarantine pest list, and effects should be made to strengthen quarantine supervision and population dynamics monitoring.
keywords:papaya mealybug  potential geographical distribution  pest risk analysis  CLIMEX model  climate change  quarantine
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