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樟子松墨天牛在中国的适生区预测及传入风险评估
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引用本文:孙冬瑞,吴卓瑾,丁俊,石娟.樟子松墨天牛在中国的适生区预测及传入风险评估.植物保护学报,2023,50(6):1472-1479
DOI:10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2023.2023823
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作者单位E-mail
孙冬瑞 北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083  
吴卓瑾 北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083  
丁俊 北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083  
石娟 北京林业大学林学院, 林木有害生物防治北京市重点实验室, 中法欧亚森林入侵生物联合实验室, 北京 100083 BJshijuan@bjfu.edu.cn 
中文摘要:为明确松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus的传播媒介樟子松墨天牛Monochamus galloprovincialis传入我国的可能性及其潜在风险,通过收集该天牛的现有分布数据、寄主信息和海关截获记录等资料,立足于检疫性有害生物传入的关键节点,利用MaxEnt模型和@RISK软件对其适生区范围和传入可能性进行分析。结果表明,樟子松墨天牛的适生区遍布全国多地,总适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的62.0%,其中以低适生区为主,中、高适生区分布在我国南方,涉及云南、重庆和贵州等省(直辖市)。在现有条件下,该天牛随针叶原木传入我国的概率均值为6.59×10-5。依据敏感性分析结果,入境针叶原木携带樟子松墨天牛的概率以及不合格原木中樟子松墨天牛的感染比例是影响樟子松墨天牛传入的关键因素。因此,为防止樟子松墨天牛传入我国,建议应加强对入境针叶原木中樟子松墨天牛的检疫力度。
中文关键词:樟子松墨天牛  传入风险评估  潜在分布区  @RISK软件  MaxEnt模型
 
Prediction of suitable areas and assessment of the introduction risk of pine sawyer beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
Sun Dongrui Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China  
Wu Zhuojin Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China  
Ding Jun Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China  
Shi Juan Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Key Laboratory for Forest Pest Control, College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China BJshijuan@bjfu.edu.cn 
Abstract:To assess the potential risks and possibility of introducing pine sawyer beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis in China, the existing distribution data, host information, and customs interception records of the longicorn beetle were utilized for analyzing potential distribution and introduction probabilities with MaxEnt and @RISK software. The results showed that M. galloprovincialis had a widespread potential distribution, covering 62.0% of the total land area in China. The majority of areas were classified as slightly suitability, while moderately and highly suitable areas were scattered in southern regions such as Yunnan, Chongqing, and Guizhou provinces (municipalities). The average probability of M. galloprovincialis introduction through a batch of coniferous logs was 6.59×10-5 under current conditions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the probability of M. galloprovincialis being present in imported logs and the infection proportion of M. galloprovincialis in unqualified logs were key factors affecting beetle introduction. To prevent M. galloprovincialis from entering China, it is recommended to strengthen quarantine measures for M. galloprovincialis in imported logs.
keywords:Monochamus galloprovincialis  introduction risk analysis  potential distribution areas  @RISK software  MaxEnt model
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