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基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术的烟粉虱适生区预测

引用本文：赵健,李志鹏,张华纬,陈宏,翁启勇.基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术的烟粉虱适生区预测.植物保护学报,2019,46(6):1292-1300

DOI：10.13802/j.cnki.zwbhxb.2019.2019166

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作者	单位	E-mail
赵健	福建省农业科学院数字农业研究所, 福州 350001
李志鹏	福建省农业科学院数字农业研究所, 福州 350001
张华纬	福建省农业科学院数字农业研究所, 福州 350001 福州大学, 空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室, 福州 350100
陈宏	福建省农业科学院数字农业研究所, 福州 350001
翁启勇	福建省农业科学院, 福州 350003	Wengqy@faas.cn

中文摘要:为分析烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci在我国的潜在适生区，以我国351个烟粉虱分布记录点、全国气候环境数据和土地利用数据为基础，利用MaxEnt生态位模型结合GIS技术进行烟粉虱适生区预测。结果表明，影响烟粉虱适生区预测的主要因子包括土地利用类型、海拔、年平均温度和最热月份最高温度。预测的烟粉虱高适生区、中适生区、低适生区与非适生区分别占全国陆地总面积的5.6%、12.3%、35.2%和46.9%。华北平原、东北平原的南部以及湖南、湖北两省交界处为烟粉虱最适宜生存区域，且这些区域作物生产潜力大，造成的损失较为严重；非适生区包括青藏高原、南疆沙漠区域、大兴安岭及东北极寒地区。本研究预测的烟粉虱中、高适生区域均有烟粉虱发生为害的报道，烟粉虱在我国的防控形势仍然严峻。

中文关键词:烟粉虱 MaxEnt生态位模型潜在分布环境因子

Prediction of potential distribution of tobacco whitefly Bemisia tabaci in China based on MaxEnt niche model and GIS

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhao Jian	Institute of Digital Agriculture, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian Province, China
Li Zhipeng	Institute of Digital Agriculture, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian Province, China
Zhang Huawei	Institute of Digital Agriculture, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian Province, China Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining and Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350100, Fujian Province, China
Chen Hong	Institute of Digital Agriculture, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian Province, China
Weng Qiyong	Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian Province, China	Wengqy@faas.cn

Abstract:In order to analyze the potential suitable areas of tobacco whitefly Bemisia tabaci in China, the MaxEnt niche model combined with GIS technology was used to predict the suitable areas of B. tabaci based on 351 distribution record points, national climate and environmental data and landuse data in China. The results showed that the main factors affecting the prediction of the suitable areas of B. tabaci were the landuse type, altitude, annual average temperature and maximum temperature in the hottest month. The predicted highly suitable area, moderately suitable area, least suitable area and unsuitable area of B. tabaci accounted for 5.6%, 12.3%, 35.2% and 46.9% of the total land area of China, respectively. The North China Plain, the southern part of the Northeast Plain and the junction of Hunan and Hubei provinces were the most suitable areas for B. tabaci. The unsuitable areas included QinghaiTibet Plateau, southern Xinjiang desert area, Daxing' anling and northeast extremely cold area. The occurrence of B. tabaci had been reported the moderately and highly suitable areas of B. tabaci predicted in this study. The prevention and control situation of B. tabaci is still grim in China.

keywords:Bemisia tabaci MaxEnt niche model potential distribution ecological factor

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